Module: Forecast confirmation and freezing¶
Executive summary¶
At the user interface in this module, you can manually fix the quantity forecasted for a combination of item-month, hence to avoid an automatic update of the quantity by computation. Thus, this manually input value of the forecast is used in computations instead. This in turn might be useful if you want to have an invariant forecast for the next n months starting by a certain date.
Functional description¶
For a selected combination item-month, the module prevents an automated update of forecasts after every recomputation. The outcome is a report in the section Detail and it is also displayed in the detail view of an item. The data are displayed as a table; the rows are items, and columns are months.
The data respect the path chosen in the tree of items.
Forecast states¶
The following states are valid for each combination:
- Unconfirmed – the initial state of a forecast. This forecast is updated with each round of computation.
- Confirmed – a forecast is not updated with every recomputation; the confirmed value stays, though the user can still adjust the value. The forecast can be confirmed either manually or automatically with computation.
- Frozen – the forecast is confirmed and it cannot be adjusted or edited by the user anymore. Freezing occurs automatically with computation.
The states confirmed and unconfirmed can be used for both components of the forecasts (baseline and promotions). The state frozen applies to all components of forecasts for the given month.
Merged items¶
In addition to confirming / freezing a forecast for the combination of item-month, a forecast can be confirmed also for a combination of items (typically in a different view). Specific merged items (and their quantities) are displayed in the tooltip.
If an item of a forecast is not confirmed, this information is displayed in a different color.
When a forecast for a merged item is confirmed, the total quantity is split up according to individual shares in sales over the past 12 months. If there is an item (in a newly merged item) without a sale in the past 12 months, the total quantity is split evenly for each item. An amount of months to be considered can be set up during an implementation.
Automatic confirmation and freezing¶
A forecast can be confirmed automatically with a recomputation. A number of months to be considered for confirmation is defined during an implementation. As a rule, a value of a forecast computed on a given conversion is confirmed.
Automatic confirmation can also be turned off.
Freezing occurs exclusively and automatically during a conversion. A number of months to be considered for freezing is defined during an implementation. The number of months for freezing must be equal to or less than the number of months for confirmation.
Automatic freezing can also be turned off.
Both of these automatic operations on items apply to all the items in the system.
Forecast components¶
There are two basic components to a forecast: baseline and promotions. They can be changed during the implementation.
Extensions¶
Un-confirmation button¶
The extension adds a button to cancel confirmation. The button controls the field next to it. When activated, the quantity gets unconfirmed and then updated again with every recomputation.
Filtering items¶
The default display of items (i.e., according to their location in the item tree) can be changed: a filtering form (right above the table with items) can be used. The filter can use essentially any parameters.
Merging items¶
As a default, multiple items can be merged into a single one; the sum of their forecasts is then displayed by the current view. However, items can be combined differently, not the least by a dynamic merge of different parameters (requires Filtering items).
Another data series¶
In addition to the basic display data series (baseline, promo, computed), it is possible to add other supporting series and indicators for the user. For example, the quantity of sales a year ago, various average, cleaned or uncleaned sales and forecasts – and so on.
Automatic confirmation / freezing¶
The default behavior is to confirm (freeze) all items for the period M+ number of future months. The value to be confirmed (frozen) is always the one established in recomputation.
This can be changed in the following ways:
- Confirm of freeze any future month
- Freeze not the value computed by the system, but another value
- Freeze only selected items
- User-defined automatic adjustment of the already confirmed (or frozen) values
Breakdown of a forecast for multiple items¶
As a default, a forecast is broken down according to sales over the past 12 months. The default can be changed and the splits can be computed in another way.
Additional columns in a table¶
Additional columns – with supporting data for the user – can be added to the table displaying the forecasted values.
History of edited values¶
When you mouse over a box in a table, an edit history of that value (including automatic) appears in a tooltip. Each line contains the original and the new value as well as the user who edited the value.